This year, nickel, aluminum and other nonferrous metals prices volatility, the market is expected to shrink the supply of some colored varieties prices is more optimistic. Industry insiders estimate that the export ban in Indonesia, next to the stock market as well as downstream demand growth in multiple effects, some non-ferrous species or gap between supply and demand will gradually appear.
Price fluctuates significantly
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In the first half of this year, surging nickel prices, after the rapid rebound in aluminum prices. Supply collapses into one of the reasons driving these metal prices.
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Data show that 17 June copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other base metals offer increased compared with the previous day. Among them, the average price of 13,270 yuan aluminum / ton, zinc average price of 15,370 yuan / ton, the average price of nickel is 128,750 yuan / ton. From early June, some companies offer domestic point of view, A00 aluminum price remained at the level of 13320-13700 yuan / ton, zinc quotations about 15210-15500 yuan / ton, 1 # tin quote about 143000-145000 yuan / ton, 1 # Nickel prices reached 130000-132000 yuan / ton. Among them, the nickel price has risen more than 40% over the beginning margin.
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Earlier this year, Indonesia's export ban, ban domestic ore exports. Because Indonesia has the world's bauxite, the main suppliers of nickel and other minerals, the ban is also lifted the market prices for the relevant species expectations.
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It is understood that Indonesia aluminum, nickel ore exports accounted for the proportion of the world's supply were 16% and 25%. Minsheng Securities believes that due to the declining quality of domestic bauxite, bauxite, low-cost Port of hoarding being depleted. Indonesia, since the beginning of the policy to prohibit the export of bauxite will stimulate prices. With the export ban fermentation, coupled with optimistic about the market prospects aluminum body, many agency expects aluminum prices will rebound in the second half, and showing a rising trend.
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In addition to nickel, and aluminum by supply factors, the market is also expected zinc supply shortage will be revealed in the future. International Lead and Zinc organization expects shortage will reach 175,000 tons. Data also show that since 2014, zinc stocks continued to decline, the current global inventories have fallen to 100 million tons. Meanwhile, the global zinc demand is still growing rapidly, the zinc market may appear a real shortage in the future. Shun Securities believes that some large zinc mine is about to shut down in the future, zinc supply gap will be gradually expanded, but in the short term also failed to form a larger impact.
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Accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity
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Although some colored varieties faced supply shortfall, but the domestic energy conservation, elimination of backward pace has not slowed down.
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Shanghai Economic Information Committee recently issued a "negative list Shanghai industrial restructuring and Energy Efficiency Guide (2014 edition)", which is the domestic industrial restructuring in the field for the first time in accordance with the guidance of a negative list catalog concept developed, involving the chemical industry, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, machinery and other 12 industries, 386 restricted category, out of class production technology and equipment.
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Recently, Hebei Province Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued a document, to increase efforts to implement differential pricing policy, the use of pricing as a means to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, promote industrial restructuring. Requirements for steel, cement, iron alloy, calcium carbide, caustic soda, yellow phosphorus and zinc smelting industry out of class, restricted production equipment (production lines, process) implementation of differential electricity pricing policy, differential pricing standard fare of not less than per kilowatt-hour out of class 0.4 yuan, restricted not less than 0.1 yuan.
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Insiders said that, compared with the international market shortage, many colored species in the country is still facing the risk of overcapacity, even higher than the new capacity out of production phenomenon. Eliminate backward step for the future of the domestic non-ferrous some varieties still accelerating, production and operation of relevant companies will also be affected and adjust.
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